Who has the toughest run-in? Every Premier League team ranked by difficulty of their remaining fixtures

Neil Warnock, Harry Kane, Aubameyang and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer composite image
The season's end has come into sight, but which teams face the toughest fixtures in the final two months?

The 'run-in' refers to an undefined, ambiguous section of the football season that takes in the final handful of matches.

For the purpose of this experiment, we have decided the run-in constitutes all the remaining matches in 2018/19 from today - the current international break seems like a convenient and useful cut-off point.

So, which sides have the easiest run-in, and who is still up against it in season's last two months?

To work this out, we have added up the average points per game of each team's remaining opponents to give a 'difficulty rating' of the sides they are still to play. We have done this based on home or away points totals depending on the venue of the games to come. The higher the number, the more difficult the remaining games.

For example, for Arsenal's next game, which is at home to Newcastle, we have added 0.87 to their total, because that is the average number of points Newcastle have taken from their away games this season. Meanwhile, Arsenal's trip to Everton - a tougher game - adds 1.56 to their total as that is Everton's average points won at home this season. All of these values have been added together to give us total for all their remaining opponents, then divided by the number of games left to give an average (teams have between seven and nine games left to play).

Of course, no science can account for such intangibles as a relegation candidate scrapping for their lives, a new manager bounce or a mid-table side already being 'on the beach', while our method does not take into account form, fixture congestion or injuries.

But what is does give us is an indication of how tough each team's run-in is. These are the results, with the Premier League's 20 teams' remaining fixtures ranked from hardest to easiest.

20. Cardiff

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.72 (toughest run-in)

Remaining games: 8

Home: Chelsea, Liverpool, Crystal Palace

Away: Brighton, Man City, Burnley, Fulham, Man Utd.

The average points total of relegation-threatened Cardiff’s remaining opponents is 1.72, making their run-in the hardest in the Premier League. They have eight games left, including Chelsea and Liverpool at home and Manchester United and City away. Their top-flight fate will boil down to crunch trips to three teams also battling it out at the bottom in Brighton, Burnley and Fulham.

Neil Warnock, Manager of Cardiff City looks dejected during the Premier League match between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Cardiff City at Molineux
Neil Warnock's side have eight tough matches left to play Credit: Getty images

19. Huddersfield

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.60

Remaining games: 7

Home: Leicester, Man Utd, Watford

Away: Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Southampton, Tottenham.

Even without the knowledge that they have the second-toughest set of opponents left to play, Huddersfield were probably already resigned to relegation. Only seven games remain for them to do the impossible, and given even winning all of their remaining games might not save them, fixtures against Liverpool, United and Tottenham are likely to seal their fate.

18. West Ham

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.57

Remaining games: 7

Home: Everton, Leicester, Southampton

Away: Chelsea, Man Utd, Tottenham, Watford.

It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that West Ham won’t get another point away from home this season, and their home fixture list isn’t the kindest, either. They have improved markedly after a poor start to the season but their campaign could end up petering out.

17. Newcastle

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.54

Remaining games: 7

Home: Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Southampton

Away: Arsenal, Brighton, Fulham, Leicester.

Newcastle are one of the Premier League’s form teams with five wins in their last nine so they shouldn’t fear their remaining opponents and there should be enough points on offer that they are not sucked back into the relegation battle. However, both Liverpool and Crystal Palace fare well on the road and trips to Arsenal and Leicester look tough, too.

16. Burnley

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.52

Remaining games: 7

Home: Arsenal, Cardiff, Man City, Wolves

Away: Bournemouth, Chelsea, Everton

Burnley's Phillip Bardsley during the Premier League match between Burnley FC and Leicester City at Turf Moor
Burnley have a tough run-in, but have the benefit of knowing Cardiff's run-in is even harder Credit: getty images

Burnley’s remaining games suggest they could be in real trouble, but at least they have the comfort of knowing Cardiff’s run-in is even tougher. Sean Dyche’s side may need to pick up points in home games against Arsenal and Wolves, while that showdown with Cardiff looks absolutely massive.

15. Brighton

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.49

Remaining games: 9

Home: Bournemouth, Cardiff, Man City, Newcastle, Southampton

Away: Arsenal, Tottenham, Wolves, Chelsea

Those away games make for grim reading for Brighton fans (is there even a single point available there?), but they still have five home games left, including three that look winnable. Chris Hughton will have to make sure the FA Cup semi-final doesn’t become an unwelcome distraction from the fight against the drop.

14. Tottenham

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.49

Remaining games: 8

Home: Crystal Palace, Brighton, Huddersfield, West Ham, Everton

Away: Liverpool, Man City, Bournemouth.

In the list of unmeasurable intangibles at the top of this page, ‘having a new stadium’ wasn’t mentioned because, well, it only applies to a team every 15 years or so, but for Spurs the new ground could make - or break - their run-in. They have five games at the new White Hart Lane and could really do with hitting the ground running back in the familiar surroundings of N17 given they have to go to both Liverpool and Manchester City. With a tougher run-in than any other side challenging for the Champions League, Spurs will need both maximum points at home and an upturn in form in away games, following three consecutive losses.

13. Crystal Palace

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.43

Remaining games: 8

Home: Huddersfield, Man City, Everton, Bournemouth

Away: Tottenham, Arsenal, Newcastle, Cardiff

With a few winnable home games remaining and no cup competitions to distract them, Palace should be safe from the drop. An easier run-in than both Cardiff and Burnley could make the difference, although the fitness of Wilfried Zaha will, as always, be the deciding factor for Palace.

12. Chelsea

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.40

Remaining games: 8

Home: West Ham, Burnley, Watford, Brighton

Away: Cardiff, Liverpool, Man Utd, Leicester.

Chelsea should be expecting to win all of their home games but the trips to Liverpool and United are the biggest threats to their top four hopes given that they already have ground to make up on their three rivals in that race. Crucially, Chelsea’s run-in is tougher than those of both Arsenal and Manchester United.

11. Leicester

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.38

Remaining games: 7

Home: Bournemouth, Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsea

Away: Huddersfield, West Ham, Man City

Winning at Burnley last week having been forced to play for 86 minutes with only 10 men will have given Leicester huge confidence and new manager Brendan Rodgers will want to finish the season as strongly as possible in the hope that doing so gathers momentum for his first full campaign at the King Power. But they have a few real tests remaining this season and the teams above them have a game in hand, so catching Wolves in seventh might be beyond them.

10. Southampton

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.37

Remaining games: 8

Home: Liverpool, Wolves, Bournemouth, Huddersfield

Away: Watford, Brighton, Newcastle, West Ham

Southampton’s run-in is significantly easier than the other teams around them and they should, with a game in hand over Burnley and having improved under Ralph Hassenhuttl, survive. The home games against Bournemouth - who have lost 11 of 15 away games this season - and Huddersfield look like the best opportunities to get three points, while they could nick a point or two on the road. Seven points should keep them up.

9. Everton

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.36

Remaining games: 7

Home: Arsenal, Man Utd, Burnley

Away: West Ham, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Tottenham.

The win over Chelsea last week will give Everton belief they can do the same at home to Arsenal, who have won only five of 14 away games so far this season. Their away games don’t look too difficult, but Everton’s form on the road has been dismal for the entire campaign (four wins from 15 on the road) and so four trips to London appear daunting for a side that do not like long journeys. Can they motivate themselves for a mid-table battle for the season’s final two months?

8. Fulham

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.34

Remaining games: 7

Home: Man City, Everton, Cardiff, Newcastle

Away: Watford, Bournemouth, Wolves.

For Fulham to have any chance of staying up, they will have to do something about their dreadful away record - they have taken only two points from 16 games on the road - and that looks pretty unlikely against mid-table Watford, Bournemouth and Wolves. It’s pretty clear Fulham are going down.

7. Wolves

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.34

Remaining games: 8

Home: Arsenal, Man Utd, Brighton, Fulham

Away: Burnley, Southampton, Watford, Liverpool.

It remains to be seen how seriously Wolves take the Premier League considering that if City win the FA Cup the team that finishes seventh will go into the Europa League qualifiers, which would mean a ludicrously early start to next season. That said, Wolves will get up for their three remaining games against ‘big six’ sides because it is those matches they have enjoyed most this season. Seventh is certainly attainable if they want it given this run-in.

6. Liverpool

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.33

Remaining games: 7

Home: Tottenham, Chelsea, Huddersfield, Wolves

Away: Southampton, Cardiff, Newcastle

Two points clear at the top of the table but having played a game more than City, Liverpool cannot afford another slip-up, and home games against Spurs and Chelsea provide the biggest threats to their title challenge. Their run-in is of similar difficulty to City’s, so they may just be relying on their rivals to falter.

5. Manchester City

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.32

Remaining games: 8

Home: Cardiff, Tottenham, Leicester

Away: Fulham, Crystal Palace, Man Utd, Burnley, Brighton.

The eyes are immediately drawn to that Manchester derby at the end of April, when Liverpool fans will be getting behind United in the hope that they can take points off City and send the title to Anfield. There’s a lot of football to play before that, but City face six opponents they will be expected to beat, and should be able to raise their game to see off Spurs, who have lost three in a row on the road.

Andy Robertson of Liverpool is challenged by Raheem Sterling of Manchester City during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Liverpool FC at the Etihad Stadium
Manchester City and Liverpool have run-ins of similar difficulty Credit: Getty images

4. Manchester United

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.28

Remaining games: 8

Home: Watford, West Ham, Man City, Chelsea, Cardiff

Away: Wolves, Everton, Huddersfield

United have more home games left than away but they have dropped almost as many points at Old Trafford as they have on the road this season, so home games against City and Chelsea look potentially troubling. They are fortunate, however, to be playing Wolves in the week leading up to their FA Cup semi-final so Nuno Espirito Santo may choose to rest players for that game.

3. Arsenal

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.28

Remaining games: 8

Home: Newcastle, Crystal Palace, Brighton

Away: Wolves, Everton, Watford, Leicester, Burnley

Arsenal's French striker Alexandre Lacazette (R) celebrates with team mates during the English Premier League football match between Arsenal and Cardiff City at the Emirates Stadium in London.
Arsenal have an easier run-in than any other side chasing the Champions League places Credit: Getty images

Arsenal are in fine form and have momentum behind them in the race for the top four, and their remaining fixtures are more favourable than any of the teams around them. Unai Emery will expect to win all three remaining home games but their away record will be the biggest concern. Trips to Wolves, Everton, Watford, Leicester and a Burnley side, erm, scrapping for their lives, look tough, but Arsenal’s run-in is that much easier than Tottenham’s that a Champions League spot is certainly attainable.

2. Watford

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.17

Remaining games: 8

Home: Southampton, Fulham, Arsenal, Wolves, West Ham

Away: Chelsea, Man Utd, Huddersfield

Watford’s focus will be on the FA Cup, but they will want to keep up the positive feeling in the squad by winning league games, too. Their five home games are all against teams who win less than 35 per cent of their away games, while their away games include the side with the worst home record in the league. Seventh place is a realistic aim.

1. Bournemouth

Difficulty of remaining opponents: 1.14 (easiest run-in)

Remaining games: 7

Home: Burnley, Fulham, Tottenham

Away: Brighton, Southampton, Leicester, Crystal Palace

In Bournemouth’s seven remaining games they should be aiming for enough points to secure a top half finish. At home, they face two of the worst sides on the road (plus Tottenham), while away, they play four of the eight worst teams at home. Bournemouth’s players could well be on the beach before long.

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